White House focuses on further economic stimulus. Historically speaking, presidential elections have essentially made no difference when it comes to long-term investment returns. Daily and longer-term outlook on both U.S. and global markets including the likely movement of key market indices. The response to the COVID-19 crisis — social distancing — has accelerated this powerful trend of digitizing the world; services that were already useful have become essential in some cases. Biden will instead put his immediate focus on rebuilding the economy, A Neuberger Berman investment chief says he's identified 3 overlooked ways to profit from world-changing 5G technology - and shares the stock picks best-suited for all of them, Morgan Stanley details 3 trades set to outperform as investors grow more comfortable with a Democratic sweep », LIVE: Here come Facebook's Q3 2020 earnings ». Read more: BANK OF AMERICA: Buy these 11 underowned stocks ahead of their earnings reports because they're the most likely candidates to beat expectations in the weeks ahead, Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our, Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories, European Union had struck a deal in July to borrow billions, 'EVs are REALLY profitable': Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas and 3 more experts lay out their bullish cases for Tesla and 3 other popular electric-car stocks, BANK OF AMERICA: Buy these 11 underowned stocks ahead of their earnings reports because they're the most likely candidates to beat expectations in the weeks ahead, Morgan Stanley details 3 trades set to outperform as investors grow more comfortable with a Democratic sweep », LIVE: Here come Facebook's Q3 2020 earnings ». The US election is "of such historical importance that a shift towards a new approach in trade/foreign policy and. © 2020 Forbes Media LLC. If Trump wins, expect Trump to cut taxes. "Even though it was becoming increasingly apparent that an agreement was coming, the euro only rallied after final confirmation of a deal," he explained in a note Tuesday. "The market – especially real money investors – did not feel comfortable changing allocations before such a historic event was out of the way.".
The dollar remained under pressure as the euro rose to a 1-1/2 year high.
These stocks, plus Microsoft, comprise 25% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500® as of September 16, and they account for all the year-to-date gains in the index. Democratic control of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives would make a corporate tax hike much more likely and create the risk of more intense corporate regulation. If President Donald Trump remains in office, that may still lead to a reversal of some recent trends. A recovery in the stock market and the economy provide President Trump with his best chance of re-election. But the infusion and printing of money will have obvious consequences; inflation is a major concern as the value of a dollar continues to get watered down. If Biden wins, expect Biden to raise the capital gains tax, leading to the selling of winners like technology stocks.
Markets haven't yet priced in a Joe Biden win, which means the dollar still has plenty of room to weaken, Deutsche Bank said on Tuesday. The European Union had struck a deal in July to borrow billions for the first time in history. But by the way investors are placing their bets, Saravelos argues that the 10% risk premium on Trump is so large that there may be "plenty of room for the dollar to weaken" if Biden wins. However, the 2020 election is too close to call, and there is nothing that bothers the markets more than uncertainty. The market’s success will depend on the trajectory and strength of the coronavirus as well as the presidential election. subscriptions skyrocketed. Given these likely scenarios, the post-election strategy investors should follow is being overweight cyclicals, also known as the "epicenter" stocks. This is where positioning is the lightest right now, and would offer relative growth drivers for investors, he said. The U.S. stock market has powered through every election since 1933, reaching new highs over time regardless of whether a Republican or a Democrat resided in the White House. Pre-election, Lee wouldn't be surprised to see volatility over the next 30 days, as risk-averse investors are fearing mainly two things: a contested election outcome, or "something bad" happening pre-election like a worsening condition of Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis or a delayed election. Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. © 2020 Insider Inc. and finanzen.net GmbH (Imprint). Disclaimer |
Here are the 14 stocks best-positioned to benefit from the boom. Saravelos noted that real money investors tend to refrain from making big portfolio changes before a historic event unfolds. A "risk premium" is the minimum amount of excess return, above the risk-free rate, that an investor requires to take on a certain level of risk. The pandemic has accelerated the growth and market power of the major technology platform companies by several years. Markets have not yet priced in a Joe Biden election victory as real money investors are not comfortable changing their portfolios before certain historic events play out, Deutsche Bank said on Tuesday. The space industry will grow by over $1 trillion in the next decade, says Bank of America. US Stocks Lack Direction Canadian Stocks at 1-Month Lows Dollar Depreciates as Earnings Beat Argentine Peso Hits All-time Low WTI Crude Hovers at 3-Week Lows South Africa Stocks Extend Losses Corn Climbs to 15-Month High India Stocks Rebound on Tuesday South African Rand Hits Over 1-Month ... Palm Oil Rises to Above $2,600 More On the plus side, most countries are now better equipped to manage a potential second wave in terms of health care capacity and treatment. Biden plans to at least partially reverse President Donald Trump’s 2017 corporate tax cuts, which could deliver a hit to earnings per share in 2021. Overall, expect a bumpy path for U.S. markets in the final months of 2020 as the economy comes back online, followed by a (potentially) more solid recovery in 2021. ", Read more: A Neuberger Berman investment chief says he's identified 3 overlooked ways to profit from world-changing 5G technology - and shares the stock picks best-suited for all of them, Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our, Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories. Virus is probably contained in mid-2021. NFLX This will take some time to play out, but most professional investors should see it coming. They will become an even bigger focus for markets if the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, takes a decisive lead.
Whether or not the pandemic continues to keep people sheltered in their homes, e-commerce will inevitability grow, as people have now adapted to these convenient services. In a note on Tuesday, Lee spelled out the economic and stock market impact a Trump or Biden presidency would have, and how investors should be positioned post-election. The landmark deal, aimed at reconstruction of the bloc, was agreed after days of negotiations. Read more: 'EVs are REALLY profitable': Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas and 3 more experts lay out their bullish cases for Tesla and 3 other popular electric-car stocks. Made In NYC |
The stock market's recent surge from late-March lows is best attributed to a "fear of missing out" attitude among investors, and skepticism about the rally's strength remains, Goldman added. There's only one big difference between a Trump and Biden win, according to Lee. These are stocks that were most hurt from the economic declines associated with COVID-19, and are set to benefit from a steady reopening of the economy. On the surface it seems like a ripe situation for stock market disaster, given the tumultuous year the world has been thrown into. Brian Menickella, co-founder of The Beacon Group of Companies, EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change. On the other hand, we’ve been seeing a spike in gold and silver prices, so investors must stay on top of these trends. © 2020 Insider Inc. and finanzen.net GmbH (Imprint).
In a note on Monday, JPMorgan said that Biden will instead put his immediate focus on rebuilding the economy rather than raising taxes, and that any tax increases would likely be "watered down. In addition to my corporate retirement practice, I am a MLB Player and NFL Registered Player Financial Advisor working closely with professional athletes and guiding their money management. We expect he will not endanger this by re-starting trade hostilities. Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Since experts agree that we are still in the midst of the first wave, it’s unknown if a second wave is underway. Good Subscriber Account active since DOW S&P 500 NASDAQ 100 Markets have … This prediction could change if Trump’s poll ratings show him in a losing position a couple of weeks out from the election. 2. "We disagree.". Under either a Trump or Biden win this November, Lee expects the following: Read more: The space industry will grow by over $1 trillion in the next decade, says Bank of America. While e-commerce has grown in popularity, it still represented only about 11% of U.S. retail sales last year, according to Business Insider, and mobile payments stood at similarly low levels. By design, elections have winners and losers, but in the long run, the real winners have been investors who avoided the temptation to time the market and stayed in it for the long haul. Here are the key factors affecting the ever improving outlook for the US stock market: US job numbers — jobs will come back by 2021, but lower than before; The April PMI ® fell to 41.5%, down 7.6% from the March reading of 49.1%; fears about Corona Virus in North America beginning to … But post-election, all signs point to bullishness for stocks. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment implications for either a Joe Biden presidency or the re-election of President Donald Trump are nearly identical, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. 3. The outlook on vaccine development is promising, although 2021 is the most optimistic and realistic timeline.
But not all analysts are so sure that Biden will raise taxes immediately in office. All rights reserved. It has created a glimpse into how they will continue to operate since we know that every interaction can be digital. According to research conducted by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research, during the pandemic, most active funds had underperformed passive benchmarks. Another key watchpoint will be the election outcomes of the Republican-led Senate. To establish his point, Saravelos used the euro-dollar price action earlier this year as an example. "With the dollar starting to weaken, many now claim this election outcome is priced in," strategist George Saravelos said.
Latest Stock market outlook, share Market Outlook, market news, special reports, photos, videos and more on Moneycontrol. On the surface it seems like a ripe situation for stock market disaster, given the tumultuous year the world has been thrown into. Stock quotes by finanzen.net. Additionally, investors should sell the "economy closed" winners, namely technology stocks that have thrived during the COVID-19 lockdowns. Excluding these stocks, the S&P 500 would have declined by around 4% for the period. As we can see, the election is somewhat dependent on the strength of the economy given our country’s current circumstances.
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